Systematic Insights

Market perspectives, fund updates, and insights on systematic investing from the team at Blackworks Capital.

Weekly Market Read

Monday, 2 November 2026

The Nasdaq 100 posted −1.97% on the week as institutional positioning in the AI complex turned underweight for the first time since early 2023, and Friday's October payrolls are the next test.

Mega-cap technology led the market lower while small caps rose and credit tightened, a split the research reads as rotation rather than stress. Apple's results tonight, the midterms Tuesday and October payrolls Friday land on an options structure that would amplify any break of nearby support.

The Five Forces this week
MacroRESILIENTThe economy, rates and credit remain orderly beneath the equity weakness, with credit tightening rather than confirming the selloff.
TechnicalMIXEDPrices have broken their shorter-term trend while the longer-term uptrend holds, with the damage concentrated in the largest names rather than the broad tape.
Options positioningAMPLIFYINGDealer hedging would accelerate a move through nearby support rather than cushion it, and the options market is paying up for protection against the downside.
FundamentalsSUPPORTIVEEarnings are beating broadly and growing faster than prices, leaving valuations cheaper than they were a month ago.
SentimentMIXEDInvestors are neither euphoric nor capitulating; positioning is being trimmed in the most crowded trades while broad opinion sits in balance.
Artificial Intelligence

AI Mini-Series Part XI: Obedient by Design: Why a Model That Takes Guidance Well Needs Room to Disagree

Part 11 of a series on building and testing an AI layer for our systematic framework. This one is about our operating record: what our independent manager did with the slack we gave it in the sixth piece, how far we swung toward structure in response, and where we now draw the line between structure and judgment.

Blackworks Capital Team · September 3, 2026

Brooks Falls, Alaska

Artificial Intelligence

AI Mini-Series Part IX: The Control Group: Proving an AI Investment Process Is Real, Not Just Plausible

Part 9 of a series on building and testing an AI layer for our systematic framework. This one is about the hardest question in the project: how do you know an AI investment process is actually working, when it cannot be backtested? Our answer runs every night, and it was built to be impossible to argue with.

Blackworks Capital Team · September 3, 2026

Sol Duc Falls, Washington